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My name is Jeff Kohler, and I am an Option Addict. I make money in the options market. Don't believe me? Watch me.

 

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« Tuesday, October 16, 2007 at 02:51 PM | Main | New Thread »

Grin and Bear it

Unfortunately, employment kept me from being more proactive about blogging today. Missing 100 Dow points is like forgetting a friends birthday. It's not something you want to make a habit of.

This will be a pretty shaky week. Not for technical reasons, but for fundamental reasons. Most major companies report earnings this week. Make sure you know when and where your companies report, unless you are into that whole "Oh $#!+, surprise thing."

Speaking of fundamental reasons, I don't like the price action here in the market. Here is an intra-day chart. Fundamentals are the only thing that can keep our heads above water (below: SPX 20Day).


If you are not long GLD, or OIH, don't bother talking to me. I don't like being ignored, and if you are not reaping profits on the most bullish commodities on the planet, then yes, you have been ignoring me.

Speaking of profits, how could I not like the moves in TBSI, DRYS, SNP, VDSI, SII, DVA, SNDA, SLB and CNX?

My shorts performed wonderfully, most notably ZION, ATI, THQI, NCS, CPA, CAH, AVTR, GLYT, JCP and a few others.

I took down XOM. I felt pretty good about that. I won't discuss any more entries until tomorrows video though, so don't ask.

Next topic... BIIB. I can't imagine this being the case, but if you didn't sell yet, take a look my last takeover offerings I gave out early...UIC and BOBJ. As you can see, there is no upside left. Even when the price falls short of the takeover price, don't ever hold. Sell. I have tried this on a few occasions, most recently AH. If you can remember this takeover candidate I gave you earlier this summer, it was priced $4 short of the offering price, and I held for a few days only to realize what an idiot I was.

Don't get greedy.

Since China has been breaking my balls, I softened the blow by reducing my exposure. I see some softening in the "buy it all now before it bursts" department... therefore I am adapting to the potential risk. This wasn't a major sell off by myself obviously, the Chineese market would have crashed.

In closing, my bets tonight are on the New York Giants and the Boston Red Sox. I better hurry home before dinner gets cold.

Recommendation: Nil

Long: October Sports

Short: Cold Dinners

Disclaimer: The Giants and BoSox read my blog before tonight's sporting events.

Reader Comments (51)

jeff,

i noticed you bought xom before earnings, are you going to hold over earnings?

todd
Mon, October 15, 2007 at 06:15PM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous
Todd,

I am going to call the CFO tomorrow and request that the date be pushed back, or that they forego the call altogether this quarter.

I'll let you know how it goes.

Jeff
Mon, October 15, 2007 at 06:20PM | Unregistered CommenterJeff Kohler
TOO FUNNY!!!!

-steven
Mon, October 15, 2007 at 06:25PM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous
Todd,

I got into XOM this morning. I know you didn't ask me, but I don't plan to hold over earnings. Being a newbie, I'm not familiar with the more advanced strategies to profit from holding over earnings.

I wonder what goodies'll be on the watchlist tomorrow... :)
Mon, October 15, 2007 at 06:53PM | Unregistered CommenterKrystal
Jeff, et al, In case anyone is interested, today PBBK printed and mailed out the announcement about the takeover of their bank where Belvedere says they will pay $23 a share for stock that is currently trading at about $18.70.

Sometime soon you will be able to say, "Yeah, he was right, it did go up" or else I will end up in the discard pile along with Beanie and whatever else you scrape off the bottom of your shoe!

Stan
Mon, October 15, 2007 at 07:09PM | Unregistered CommenterStan Lake
Jeff,
I'm pissed. I bought GLD a month ago because of you. I thought you meant PUTS!!! Just kidding. You and Eric have been all over it for so long my ears hurt. It never EVER has earnings. Maybe you could convince the CFO of XOM and see if he'd announce his earnings over at GLD instead. That'd mess everybody up. You could short XOM and make a fortune!!!

I should point out to newbies here that all you need to do is follows Jeff's watchlists and the Marketcast. Have a look at Jeff's 60 picks from last week. If you'd bought one contract in each of them, you'd probably be up about 60% this week. Maybe more, with BIIB.

I'm exhausted. Sure could use another week like last week. We'll see how it goes.
Mon, October 15, 2007 at 08:02PM | Unregistered CommenterChris and Catherine
Look Stan, Jeff's readers are too smart to fall for a stock that trades 1000 shares a day. No one here is a fool. I suggest you buy all that stock up for yourself.

We eat stocks for lunch that get bought out almost every week, thanks to Jeff, so we know how buyouts work. Remember, if you have to send a press release out on your stock, then its a dead giveaway that no one in their right mind wants to buy it.

At this point you need to go with the trend of the group. SFM
Mon, October 15, 2007 at 08:32PM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous
Jeff all I can say is thanks, that really ment a lot to me.....
Mon, October 15, 2007 at 09:24PM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous
Jeff all I can say is thanks, that really ment a lot to me.......
Mon, October 15, 2007 at 09:27PM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous
Okee Dokee SFM- Nothing like sticking my neck out to see how the ax falls. I originally bought $50,000 worth of this stock at the IPO several years ago before I was a trader or investor. My accountant and one other friend are on the board of directors and I personally know several key execs so I knew the bank was designed with one purpose in mind and that was to attract a bigger buyer. That has been accomplished so (apparently) I finally get to see my payday. I was just trying to contribute an idea that might generate you a couple of bucks. Thanks for the advice though.
Stan
Mon, October 15, 2007 at 10:14PM | Unregistered CommenterStan Lake
thanks everyone for sharing your PHD experience with me!

really appreciate it.

now, I am really concerned..
has anyone taken the online version and found it helpful?
otherwise, I think that I'd rather take the class for 3 days and learn it.

Mimosa
Mon, October 15, 2007 at 10:36PM | Unregistered CommenterMimosa
Mimosa,

Please do not take my comments as negative toward the online as I said several concepts only came together for me after that training. I have heard that the personal interaction was better live but as that is not available the online is still great.

Stan, I understand and have been right where you are. In fact I have dropped my $50,000 on the table several times with the big payday in mind. I hear about 1 in 10 really work and I hope that this is the one for you. I have not been so lucky and have those wonderful $50,000 markers out there still. In the company I own we are doing somewhat the same thing so I really do know what you are talking about. If I were to do this again Pam would trade the hammers for an axe!

I gotta go to bed. When did 6th grade math become so exhausting?
Mon, October 15, 2007 at 11:59PM | Unregistered CommenterBob (and Pam)
Can't we all be friends and get along?

We're all putting our thoughts and ideas out there.

liz
Tue, October 16, 2007 at 12:16AM | Unregistered Commenterliz & grant
"I've had relations with the markets for 9 years."

Is that a Utah thing?

lol!
Tue, October 16, 2007 at 12:55AM | Unregistered CommenterTrading Goddess
Uh oh, we got shit talking going on.

\ Is Jeff Kohler gonna have to choke a goddess? I think he's gonna have to get out this blog and choke a goddess!

LOL.

Ben
Tue, October 16, 2007 at 01:21AM | Unregistered CommenterBen
Since we're talking GLD, did anyone listen to me on SA friday morning? I hear a buyout may be on the horizon

but long-time readers of this blog know that I expect a buyout on any stock i have a long position in.

...oh, and short positions too!
Tue, October 16, 2007 at 05:02AM | Unregistered CommenterBrett
TIM!!!!

We need you man! It's time to shrink another blogger. I don't want to read anything Trading Goddess has to say on this site. Curiosity on our blogger award competition got me on her site over the weekend. All I can say is...


P U

Kim
Tue, October 16, 2007 at 05:43AM | Unregistered CommenterVA Beach Girl
Oh,and one more thing Miss Trading Goddess. Your tata's are not going to convince me that you know how to make money in the market. Let's get serious.
Tue, October 16, 2007 at 05:46AM | Unregistered CommenterVA Beach Girl
Now, now, Kim. Let's be nice. She probably paid a lot of money for them.
Tue, October 16, 2007 at 05:54AM | Unregistered CommenterDoji Girl
Now girls,

Pull your claws back in.... Do you really think those pics are really of jer? If you have followed her site for any length of time you will notice that it is all about who she wants to be but never who she really is. Mostly hot air to draw the weakminded in to boost her alter-ego. Her "picks" never really do what she predicts - all open source information she gleans off the web...

JJ
Tue, October 16, 2007 at 06:00AM | Unregistered CommenterAnonymous

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