Closing Bell: Cowboy
Thursday, February 28, 2008 at 01:49PM A great tune to send off a great day. Now if you'll excuse me, I have a magazine article to write.
Niner.
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My name is Jeff Kohler, and I am an Option Addict. I make money in the options market. Don't believe me? Watch me.
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Thursday, February 28, 2008 at 01:49PM
Reader Comments (184)
By the way...
I am glad the community got a shot of adrenaline and is back and as active as we were last year.
Nicely done everyone.
Berk
Thongs are passe'
I'm a speedo man, can't wait for Michael Phelps to rock Bejing this summer.
I would like to thank Berk for adding tons posts with good insight! But there is definitely a lot more participation!
Wonder if there is a trend in market action versus number of blog posts.... hmmm
Jeff,
At the risk of sounding old, when my kids put that song on in the car I make them listen to country afterward. I now don't have to listen to much rap anymore.
Thanks for a great week. I needed one.
Dell has a bad earnings report.
Sean:
I agree. You do sound old! Have a great evening.
i know the guy who wrote the music for that song. he ain't gettin' nuthin' for royalties. always have a contract, kids!
Sean M,
Knowing that, I will make sure we listen to rap here more often.
:)
Jeff,
Don't make me send you country music sound clips!
Remember, rap rhymes with crap for a reason!!
Sam,
I only sound old because I am 50. I am very immature. Ask my kids. I get scolded all the time.
Have to throw it out there again.
$VIX confirmed short term sell signal today.
Enjoy your evenings.
Berkshire
DrDirt,
You would prefer he LIE to the entire public?
Berkshire
Dells bad numbers or Bearded Ben mentioning some banks may fail. Not good. I'm not sure he had to mention that,
Scooter,
I do not normally ask questions about specific trades especially if I am in one or thinking about getting in one. In this case I exited today with tremendous returns.
However,
On a pattern like CNQ (now a confirmed double bottom) where I have exceeded my profit targets by a ton, I should be taking a trade today as an entry signal on the breakout, shouldn't I? I face this dichotomy often.
Please do sooth my confusion.
Cheers,
Arty
Berk:
Would you mind giving a breif explanation of what you refer to with the $VIX short-term sell signal, and confirmation posts? I've learned a lot from you over the last couple months... this one perks my interest.
Tanx,
d'Pope
Ah... this seems to resonate.... when the VIX is high, its time to buy... when the VIX is low... its time to go...
And, since its rebounding off its support line... we're calling this a short-term sell...
The confirmation is that it in fact "bounced".
Yes?
My beloved Arthur...
Should I chart it and post it for ju?
Berk
I understand, but shhooo..that hurt.
ARTY
I am despondant. Why didn't you tell me about CNQ? I'll let it slip this time... just send me half your profits. CNQ is going to re-test 75 here in the next few days. Then you can play it any way you see fit. Don't listen to Jeff. He'll just confuse you.
Eileen and Ax,
Beware of AUXL. The options have a very wide spread and you can get in at the mid price but... as one of my favourite songs says... "You can never leave." Getting out is hell unless you catch it in a great move and are happy giving up .50 to the Big Spread Natzis.
Jeff... I told you not to worry about your WNR. 20 will hold as support.
Chris,
Perhaps we should start a WNR Support Group???
Of course, we should have a warning: If your support group meeting lasts for more than 4 hours your should contact the appropriate professionals....or the local newspaper for photos. Just trying to think ahead!
The video is no longer available :( Is it Kid Rock?
If so, takes me back to Vegas and dancing on the bar at Coyote Uglies......good times, good tune.
Sean,
If we invite a few athletes we could call it the WNR Athletic Supporter.
Chris,
If we invited some Cardiologists, we could have a support meeting called "Get your "heart-on" track by investing in your WNR".
Is it ok to have that many of these...."
Good to have you back.
does anyone see a falling wedge pattern on AMLN
it seems to also have huge momentum divergence
any thoughts?
i have longer dated puts on it.
Jodi,
Don't let Raimo know you danced on the bar at Coyote Uglies in vegas. He just might explode.
I, too, got the "this video is no longer available" treatment. Because I have limited experience dancing on bars (except in Mexico City several years ago. It involved the Macharena and way too much tequila...) the picture brings back no memories whatsoever.
Chris,
no worried, I only said it because I know he's in your neck of the woods right now
That would have been dangerous, especially with all of this WNR talk ;)
no worried? no speaka da english.....
....no worries....
Can you say "Goodbye (DE)ere"?
Cramer just featured the DEERE CEO on his show.
Say "goodbye" DE.
Jim
Paul, is your falling wedge wearing one of Jeff's thongs? Hmmm, they usually fit better than that.
Re AMLN, no I don't see a falling wedge although I guess you could make one if you really tried. Mostly I see it sliding down a really super diag resistance line with no indication of stopping anytime soon. The Sto/Macd are confirming the rollover down.
My puts have been raking in the dough! Thanks Jeff! This has been a really great week!!
CEOJWS
Was Kramer Pro or Con?
Paul,
Falling wedges are supposed to occur in uptrends, as they are "bullish" continuation patterns.
"Bullish" as in trend.
Jeff,
Of course they are -- my brain lapse. I was trying so hard to find one for him I overlooked that salient point.
It is a delicious downtrend though - thanks
SueD:
"Cramer"was well kinda attached at the hip.
Watch the after and pre-market activity on DE.
Kinda ah ah CRAZY!
Jim
Jeff,
Could you give some pointers as to how to decide when a resistance line or pattern has been broken and one should exit mid-day rather than waiting til the end of the day? Seems I frequently make the wrong call on that one.
Example. Yesterday I bought badk the sold call portion of a bear spread on PFG when it broke horizontal resistance mid-day. Following a series of higher highs and higher lows it looked like it had broken the trend. By end of day it pulled back and today forced me out of the other side for a loss.
DE is another example of mid-day "failed" action but on this one I held tough and was rewarded.
Are there guidelines or other ways one can decipher should I stay or should I go?
Thx!
SueD,
I would but I have done it many times.
If I were you I would aim for more consistency and commit to a rule. Don't try to find ways to be inconsistent.
Either you exit trades early, or you wait until days end.
I always exit trades near the close. It helps me to remain unemotional.
You can afford to be inconsistent later down the road when you grow in your experience.
Does it look like RDC is right at horizontal resistance?( in one of Jeff's prior bearish watchlists)
Sue,
Jeff will be relieved to know that I agree with his selling strategies. The fact that I learned everything I know about Options from him should not cloud the issue. I have found that most of the time selling at the end of the day will save you a lot of money. Either a smaller loss... or staying in a trade that you would have exited earlier in the day (like DE today.) That is not to say there won't be times that you wished you'd exited earlier (like me today with GILD) but most of the time you oome out ahead by selling later. There will come a day that you'll be able to look in the mirror... wink... laugh in the face of financial adversity... and sell early. But you're better off making a plan and trading that plan.
Sue D,
Another added benefit would be to position size as to create less emotion intra-day. I too wait until the end of the day and agree with C2's comments.
Jim,
I see horizontal resistance at 40.50 which it broke through two days ago on decent volume. It re-tested that yesterday and it held... and then was up today. POOF!!!! resistance is now support in an uptrend.
IMHO
Jim D,
I do not see RDC at horizontal resistance.
Possibly at a diagonal resistance on a 5yr.
C&C, I see what you mean. I was looking furthur back at the gap last July. Thanks, You too Harry
sue d
i'm a new to posting on this blog.so there's other people with more command of the stop outs.
all i know was i got stopped out on mtl @122 pcu @112.
my solution was to read jeffs trading style.
good luck
todd
"Tremors were felt through the wheat pits today when MF Global, the largest clearing member in Chicago, reported that one of its representatives made unauthorized trades that lost $141.5 million on Wednesday, contributing to the high emotions driving prices. The trades involved contracts worth close to 100 million bushels of wheat."
Whoopsies
Nate,
That guy at MF Global was on my payroll.
If I have to take delivery of hundreds of thousands of bushels of wheat...I will be pissed.
Silver is over $19 an oz now, nice.
Jeff, do you think you'll actually exit gold at 1000? I know there are a ton of people with that as a price target so there will be a lot of resistance there, but it seems fundamentally like gold could go to 1100 or 1200, especially with more rate cuts.
I suppose this is more of one of those evaluate as you go positions.
any body watching fast money. i picked up cisco charts looks like a BO. can somebody comment.
i dont see any other good play
guys can somebody comment how to play GOLD.. i dont see any option for GLD.
This market looks really weak to me now. IYR and XLF could cause some serious issues in the next couple weeks. Be careful out there.
bill
You just BUY it... no options? buy the stock, ETF, index... when the time is right.
Most expect GOLD to go to 1000... GLD is expected to goto 100... but as Nate postulates... could it go even higher?