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About My Blog

My name is Jeff Kohler, and I am an Option Addict. I make money in the options market. Don't believe me? Watch me.

 

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Opening Bell

Welcome to the new and improved Option Addict blog! I have wanted to give the blog a makeover for quite some time, and I think I have come up with something bigger and better than what we have been used to. For some of you I can imagine that this comes as quite a shock, but I guarantee after you get a little more familiar with my new site, you are going to love it. Some of the major improvements I have made include...
  • An easier to read template. 7 out of 10 people found the old site hard to read.
  • Multiple tabs within the site to organize different forms of content.
  • Discussion boards within the site, to help organize community communication.
  • A faster, more effective content management system (mostly a benefit for me).
Please take a few days to get used to the new look and feel. On the lower left hand column at the very bottom is a link that says "Suggestion Box." I am counting on you for some feedback. Please let me know your thoughts, especially suggestions to make things more user friendly. The content management system is much easier on this new platform which means I will be able to provide nearly twice the content in the same amount of time it has taken me in the past. I am excited about these new changes, I hope this equals a win/win for everyone.
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As for the market Monday morning....don't expect a very exciting trading session. The market is awaiting Tuesdays decision on whether the Fed will hold or cut interest rates. Last time I checked Fed funds futures, it looks to be an 80% probability that a cut will be put into motion. As always I want you to stay diversified ahead of this announcement, or stay away from the market until the reaction has been set into motion. I will be concocting a watchlist on Monday, so stay tuned.
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As they say, time to turn the page!

An Interesting Comment

I pulled this comment off of last nights post. Please take a look....

OBSERVATION FROM A PASSIVE OBSERVER: I wanted to make a neutral comment to what was once a great blog site. Yes that is correct, once was a great site. The few that make the majority will start to scream now about the Blog Awards but you all know that it is a false standing because of your "pumping" of the votes with fake email addresses and multiple votes by the vocal minority.

This site has become a "Peyton Place" full of desperate housewives and husbands" - if you are in doubt then step back and read with an open mind the garbage that spews from your keyboards daily - again from the noisy few. Again you will rise up and contest this statement but the facts are the facts.

How could you begin to think that this is a trading blog? It is a fishing hole whereby Jeff in his charitable fashion hands out his watchlists week after week. Reality check? How many of you can operate without outside influences or inputs to scan for, analyze, execute and monitor your own trades? My guess would be not many!

Here is a challenge to the noisy majority: try keeping ALL comments and thoughts focused on trading for a week on this site and see how productive it becomes to not only you but the quiet minority.

I know that your screaming and threats will soon fly back and fill the comments section with rhetoric and garbage directed towards my comments. How about not reacting in a predictable manner and focus on trading. If you want or need a social outreach forum then start a group chat that will allow you to interact - my guess is that it would not succeed and there would only be the dominant few - still in disbelief? Scan the comments for who is actually posting and see a short list of names that control the blog.

To all the silent minority that visit here to try and actually learn about trading, hang in there. Hopefully Jeff will once again return to the methods he used to employ when the site was trading focused.

Have a great day TRADING!!!

Silent Bystander Speaking Out

Silent Bystander, thank you for making your comment. In fact, I would love it if you would try to get in contact with me at some point today.

 As a community we have encountered this topic before, but I want to bring it back into the spotlight for a public opinion, and to hear some of YOUR feedback about it.

To be honest, I don't read the comments anymore. In fact, the last time I felt I was able to engage with the community was over the weekend when myself and a few others chatted about option greeks. I have said it before and I will say it again, I don't have problem with a little banter that is off topic. I encourage it. In fact, each day after I write "the meat" of my daily post, I try to throw in some off topic material such as music videos, talking about sports, reality t.v. or something else to shake things up a bit. As you've noticed, it is a very small portion of my content.

It is troublesome to see a good post get immediately inundated with comments that do not relate to the topic whatsoever. However, when it is trading ideas, or questions relating to trading, most readers are willing and able to engage immediately, including myself. I agree with the comment that the blog has definitely changed over the last few weeks/months and I am not quite sure it is for the best.

I have mentioned that I have been involved in some changes recently. I have developed and am currently beta-testing a new site, and I have a lot of tricks, ideas, and valuable content up my sleeve. This is part of the reason why I find it impossible to keep up the the comments.

I really want to do what is best for the community, and bring the cream back up to the top. As it stands, it drives valuable readers/contributors away. I would like to know what everyone's thoughts are on the topic.

Please, leave me a comment about this topic. Just this topic.

Even if you lurk on this site, please come out of the dark. Even if you don't agree, tell me your opinion. Let's use this as an opportunity to rally around building an efficient trading community, which is what the blog was intended for.

The Greater Good

Inquiring minds want to know, what I was watching this week and last week to determine my stance on the market. If you remember a couple weeks back, I called the end of a nice rally in the SPX. I typically watch the averages on an intra-day basis as I am normally day trade in index futures or swing trade index/etf options. Let's take a look at that same 20 day chart as of today... On the 15th, you see the big break of support that I had written about. On the 17th, a successful re-test, and from then on a nice downtrend. On the 24th, we failed to make a lower low, which hinted to me that we had established a bottom (double bottom). We confirmed it by creating a higher high on the 25th. Now you can see that higher highs and lows are developing.

This doesn't mean I am overall bullish on the market. Well, I am but recently that feeling has been diluted by a few things. Primarily some weak earnings, $90 oil, and the market breadth. The NASDAQ's stellar performance has been fueled by three stocks...RIMM, AAPL, and GOOG. In my mind that tells me it is not as strong as everyone thinks. In fact, Semiconductors are typically a leading indicator, and take a look at the SOX... That to me is a major reversal that I have been waiting for for quite some time. I want to see how the market reacts outside of earnings. Good ol' MSFT pumped the market full of optimism, but that doesn't mean it can't be taken away.

I want to take a moment to review a few things. In fact, I was debating a follow up video to review my watchlist. Let's see what time permits for me today.

Take a look at MCRS. I mentioned several days back that I liked the set-up...I hope you enjoyed the reward... How could I not bring up ISRG!? I know a few people took this idea on my last watchlist, nice work! Also, those that read my rants about what I am trading in know that I have held GLDN forever. This has been one of my longest running trades of all time, next to VIP. Look at it go! Make sure you haven't forgotten about GLD. It's a great hedge as your dollars are becoming worthless. Anyhow, make sure you are still watching the stocks in my watchlist, and the shopping list I gave out yesterday. There are still some good trading ideas built into those. Stay tuned as I might run another video later today...

Recommendation: If you read this blog daily, the market will reward you with profits and plenty of trades.

Long: Fridays

Short: the Marketcast

Disclaimer: Tom Petty is definitely an Option Addict

Thank You!

I want to send out a big thank you to all of my readers who so loyally stepped in and offered up a vote for "best business blog" and "best video blog" at the bloggers choice award site. It looks like I am a finalist in those two catagories, and will not know if I have won or not until November 10th in Las Vegas.

Even though it was not a big deal to me if I won or not, I do want to let everyone know that I appreciate the support that you all offer, regardless of taking home the crown.

Thanks everyone!

Short & Sweet

Boston pulls off a huge win in Game 1 last night by a margin of 13-1. That was the game they needed to win in order to take this series. Rockies fans, I am so sorry...but at least you got good seats to the big dance.

If you are not long some CME, or any exchanges at this point, look a little closer at them. With record transaction volume and commissions, it's hard not to be loving these to the upside.

At the same time ISRG, FLIR, ESRX, LFQX, NUVA, MON, LFG, CNX, SOHU, ALXN, TSCO, GLYT and EMC have elevated my mood today. If you want a similar feeling, you need to be watching the following today...

CNH, SYNA, OSTK, PX, TRMB, GME, ERTS, RCI, and IIG.

But if you are bearish...

LFG, CYH, SVU, COLM, RAIL, THQI, OMX, SII and AVTR...

...If you are in the market for good looking set-ups that is. Or if you just want to make some money with me today. I am going to keep it short and sweet today, and go out with some 311...

Recommendation: Stop whatever it is you are doing today and make money.

Long: Colorado Readers

Short: Colorado Rockies

Disclaimer: 311 has offered to play at our Option Addict awards ceremony in Vegas.

Watch Your Step

Beartrap.jpg

Trading Style

My life is starting to return to normalcy... but don't get your hopes up. For those of you that registered for my advanced options open house, you have probably received an e-mail apologizing for the technical difficulties. I have received more e-mails, business/personal/marketcast than I think I have ever received in my entire life. If you haven't gotten a response, don't take it personal. Normally I delete all my e-mails, but lately I am trying my best to reply. If you get a rather short quick response from me, and you think "what a jerk" remember that it was one of hundreds I had received on the day.

As I have warned, earnings season has taken us all over the map. Technical Analysis takes a back seat during times like this. However, it impacts you and I when you see the VIX in the mid 20's. Make sure you put that on your radar, I will be talking about it a lot more at these levels.

Today I felt like I should talk about trading style. The other day I talked about creating an investing style and creating a foundation that consists of at least 7 basic principles. But once you've done this, you need to focus on what vehicles you are going to use to take you to where you want to go. I have often mentioned that I think every individual looking to get started in the market should take an online exam. Similar to what you would go through over at eHarmony.com. If you not familiar with eHarmony, they have constructing a very intense, intrusive, complicated but yet effective personality profile to offer help to those getting into the relationship market. They help you to find someone just as crazy, emotionally inept, and unreliable as you are. In my opinion, it was a great way to corner the market. I tip my hat to them.

I know none of this from experience, but have concluded my results from 3 minutes of research. Anyway, my point was... wouldn't it be just as effective to have a questionnaire ready when you send in your check to fund your new account with an online broker dealer? This would make sure that you have access to the only tools that are compatible with your goals, level of risk tolerance and emotional instability? Over the years, broker dealers have become very laid back in the options approval process. When you notice that the nice older lady that has been retired for 30+ years has the ability to trade naked options with no former trading experience, you know the registered options principles at these firms are going to wind up in hell.

Consider what strategies are suitable for you. I normally ask someone who is in the process of deciding on their trading style these few questions...

  • Are you generally a risk taker, or are you conservative in your decision making processes?
  • Are you comfortable being wrong? If so, how often?
  • Are you patient?
  • What is your time frame with trading/investing?
  • What are your financial goals?
  • How emotional are you when it comes to money? Are you trading with money you can lose?

There are plenty more, but you get the point. I think most traders have to take one of two roads in trading options. High probability or high performance. I chose high performance. This style of trading seemed to fit well since I am a risk taker, I am comfortable being wrong a lot, I am very impatient, my time frame is forever, my financial goals are to be able to print my own money and make the Forbes 400, I am naturally emotional, but can afford to lose everything.

Many of you have already determined your trading style, but many others have looked at the fact that there are so many strategies and don't know where to begin. If you are going to be a high probability trader (non-directional), consider covered calls, spreads, naked puts and owning stock. This method is more conservative, fairly consistent, and offers lower returns.

 If you are the high performance trader (directional), consider buying calls and puts, stock, and maybe occasionally legging onto spreads. This method is more aggressive, less consistent, but offers much better returns when you are right.

Sometimes we get too carried away with so many details, we forget the answers to the easy questions

Recommendation: Get started on this process immediately, if you haven't already

Long: Defined trading styles

Short: Jacks of all "trades"

Disclaimer: I don't really delete e-mails, but don't test me.

PS- On a serious note, for those of you in the So Cal area, you are in my thoughts. I hope everyone is safe and doing well. Take care.

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